Draft Jottings #1: First Round Questions - 4/11/05

Hello to everybody again, it’s been awhile since my last jottings and since we’re only a couple short weeks away from the draft, I figured I had better get back at it. Unlike last year’s draft, the Steelers will be sitting around for sometime before getting their first opportunity to draft. After picking at #11 last season they will be selecting at #30 this year. That’s not all bad when you take into consideration that it was in large part because of who the Steelers drafted at #11 (Ben Roethlisberger of course) that lead to such a successful season and drove the team to a #30 pick. Anyways, enough about last season, these jottings will be looking at who the Steelers may be able to add for next season.

When picking at 30, you’re pretty much at the mercy of the rest of the league in front of you. Once the other teams’ needs have been met and their favorite players are gone then the Steelers will get to take their best shot. So far I’ve done a couple of mock drafts for the web site and I will probably do at least a couple more. What I’ve found is that there really is no solid lineup of sure thing-type players this year and that a pick at 30 might be as good as a pick at 10 or a pick at 50. In other words, this draft is not one of the better ones we’ve seen and worse than last years. So, with that in mind, what I have done is to try and figure out which players will not be around for the Steelers at 30 and have made a bit of a list of who might be not only around but also make sense for the Steelers. For example, a QB could be available at 30 but I highly doubt that the Steelers would take him unless they could turn him into a WR (more on that in a bit). OK, here are the guys I have pretty much concluded will not be available for the Steelers at #30 because I’m almost sure that the first 29 picks before them will nab these guys. They go, by position in no particular order, as follows:

QB: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Cedric Benson
WR: Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Mark Clayton
TE: None for sure
OL: Alex Barron, Khalif Barnes, Jamaal Brown
DL: Shawne Merriman, Erasmus James, Marcus Spears
LB: Derrick Johnson
CB: Antrel Rolle, Adam Jones, Carlos Rogers
S: Thomas Davis

Needless to say, if any one of these guys were to slip down to the 30 spot, it would be pretty hard to say no to that selection. So, after we eliminate those top 20 players, the picture clears up a little but not entirely. Now let’s take a look at who I believe would be the next ten players that not only rate high enough for pick #30 but fit the Steelers’ needs. I’ll rate them in order from whom I would most like to see to the least, starting at #10 (least).

10. David Pollack OLB/DE: An outside pass-rusher with great effort would probably come in as a reserve. Hard to say whether he could make the adjustment from college DE to a pro rush linebacker though.

9. Marcus Johnson OG/OT: He would be the depth on the O-line that the Steelers are looking for but do you really want to draft just for depth? He was mainly a RG in college and the Steelers just used a first rounder on a RG three years ago. Johnson wouldn’t be a bad addition though; a team that relies on its O-line as much as the Steelers always needs quality there.

8. Roddy White WR: Most folks have him rated well ahead of 30 but he may just slide down a bit. He’s a good sized receiver who can also run in the 4.4s but it remains to be seen if he can perform at a higher level after playing for Alabama-Birmingham. My guess is that it won’t matter, he’ll be gone.

7. Justin Tuck DE/OLB: Here’s another guy who would have to make the jump from college DE to pro LB. He would in the Steelers scheme anyways. Tuck has good speed and size and will be entering his second year after a major knee injury so there may be even more than he has showed so far. I’m guessing that it won’t matter much; he’ll be gone before the Steelers have a shot at him anyways.

6. Shaun Cody DE USC: Here’s a guy who makes a lot of sense right now for the Steelers. With Kimo von Oelhoffen in his mid thirties, having a guy who could step right in wouldn’t hurt. Cody’s a good-sized effort player who wouldn’t allow the opposing offenses to be able to cheat away from him like they do with Kimo.

5. Brodney Pool S: This guy looks like a great pick for the Packers who just lost their starting free safety but if not, he’d make a lot of sense for the Steelers. Currently the Steelers are using Chris Hope and his single interception last season and tendency to overplay for the big hit shows that he may be out of place at FS. Pool would probably be able to step right in and be better in coverage than Hope and be able to protect the dreaded deep middle of the field.

4. Matt Jones QB/WR/TE: This guy is one of my favorites. He has been flying up draft boards since his performances at the Senior Bowl and Combine. He’s big (6-6, 246), fast (4.4 forty) and has soft hands. He’d make a great addition at WR for the Steelers as their last big project at WR (Burress) failed miserably. It remains to be seen if he can make the transition from college QB to WR but if any team can teach him, it’s the Steelers.

3. Heath Miller TE: Miller is the best chance the Steelers have to pulling of a great first pick that meets both talent and need. He’s easily the highest rated TE in the draft and that just so happens to be the position that most needs help. Jerame Tuman and crew just did not get the job done last season and will likely not be improving too much in the off season. While Miller may not be in the same class as a Tony Gonzalez or Todd Heap, he would provide a big improvement and give Ben a big target downfield again.

2. Justin Miller CB: What was thought of as unthinkable just a few weeks ago is now a possibility and the Steelers might just get lucky. Miller is a starting caliber corner coming right out of Clemson plus adds the ability to return kicks and is a true playmaker. The only reason he may slide this far is that another corner (Fabian Washington) may have passed him by because of his ability to run under 4.3. Let’s hope so, Miller is the kind of guy who could start for the Steelers for a long time. I’m not so sure about Washington, no matter how fast he is.

1. Demarcus Ware OLB: This DE/’backer combo is the best pure speed rusher in the draft and would look very nice opposite Joey Porter next season. That said, I don’t think he’s going to be around at 30 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves up into the top ten by draft day. For now though, I’ll leave him on our wish list. He would be a devastating pickup for the Steelers D. Heck, with enough of a pass rush, the Steelers may not even need corners this year.

OK, there it is, one of the players I have mentioned above will be available at pick #30. Which one of course, I have no idea. If I were a betting man, I would probably look seriously at four of them due to availability. Heath Miller makes the most sense for the Steelers, he gives them a quality player at a position of need and only a post-season groin injury has given them a chance at him. Take him if he’s there. Matt Jones is by far the most intriguing and has the most upside. I still can’t believe a QB who’s the size of an NFL TE with 4.4 speed wouldn’t be worth taking a shot, even in the first round. Sometimes you just have to throw caution to the wind when the upside is that high. Brodney Pool is a very sensible decision and could be a good free safety for years. Since Chris Hope is not only ineffective but also an unrestricted free agent next year, there would be nothing wrong with taking him at 30. That is, if he’s still around. Last and in my opinion, least of the above-mentioned players is Marcus Johnson. I bring him up again because he is all but assured to be available when the Steelers pick and they do need O-line depth. I just happen to think that depth is what you draft for in later rounds.

If it were up to me, right now, I would go with Jones. Heath Miller would be close but I just think that Jones’ upside is worth more than a TE who may or may not be a good one. Since you never really know who’s going to turn out in these drafts, why not swing for the fences and grab the special player. After recording a 15-1 season, I think the Steelers deserve the opportunity.

That’s all for today, I’ll be back real soon.

Tim Campion