Draft Jottings - 04/11/06

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No intro here, let’s just get to it.

• First off, sorry I’ve been so inactive this year (as far as writing goes). My schedule has been very busy and I’ve been yakking back and forth with those in the know more than communicating what I know with y’all. My mistake, I’ll try to be better from here on out.
• Had word a couple weeks ago that Ty Law had some interest in the Steelers and was willing to do it at a better price. Some in my e-mail loop already have heard this so bear with me. The interest died on the Steelers side with the signing of Deshea Townsend. Reports are now coming out from some internet and press sources that there is still interest. Forget it, its old news at this point. No Law, no need.
• I was inspired to write this Jottings after wasting an hour and a half of my life watching the ESPN draft special. First off, somebody should let ESPN know there are more than 5 players in the draft and more than just the top of the first round. Secondly, Reggie Bush is no Gale Sayers. At best he might be a Marshall Faulk (nothing wrong with that) but Sayers? Please. Finally, somebody really needs to put a muzzle on Sean Salisbury. I’ve never seen such a less than mediocre talent and intellect so sure of himself while being wrong about 99% of the time.
• Since I’m on ESPN, let me offer a little advice when it comes to the NFL draft. Ignore Mel Kiper Jr. He has his opinions and does his own scouting and that is fine. Anytime he comes off as being an insider it is time to run and hide. I’ve known and met numerous people connected with the NFL for sometime and what they all have in common is a disdain for Kiper. To them, he is just a geek from his basement with no real football experience aside from watching the game. Now, there is nothing wrong with being a fan or even having your opinions about football if you have never been involved in the sport but Kiper brings his arrogance along with his limited knowledge. Where the pros have their problem is when Kiper comes across as the “guru” of the draft. If you want good reading and a guy who could be considered a “guru”, read the Dallas Morning News’ Rick Gosselin. He doesn’t bother trying to “scout” every player in the country, he just asks those in the NFL who have and they like and respect him enough to give him the info. There’s a reason he kicks Mel’s butt every year in draft predictions. Of course, that may not be saying much, I’ve beaten Mel every year I’ve put out an official mock as well. So, save your money, refrain from buying any Mel stuff and just drop a couple of quarters on a Dallas Morning News on draft day. You’ll be much more informed.
• I guess I should talk about the Steelers, that’s what I’m here for. OK, here we go. Who will they pick? I have no idea. Seriously. The last couple of years I had them taking a QB (Philip Rivers because I thought Ben Roethlisberger was too good to pass up with a top four pick-guess I was on to something there) and Heath Miller (that groin injury was a gift for the Steelers). Sadly, this year is so up in the air I can only get the list down to about a dozen or so. Then again, it means that the Steelers will have a tough time NOT finding a player they like at 32. They could go after a RB to replace Jerome Bettis. Two names to know are LenDale White (a player supposedly sliding-I doubt he’ll see 32) and Joseph Addai. I would love Addai. What you would get is a complete back who could step right in on third downs (sorry Verron Haynes). He would be a great compliment to Fast Willie. OK, lets say you want a WR. There are rumors that Ohio Stater Santonio Holmes might be falling. I wouldn’t bet on it. Not at 32 anyways. The best player the Steelers could land at WR would be Sinorice Moss. Picture Antwaan Randle El with sub-4.4 speed and deep threat ability. I’m not so sure he could chuck the ball 40 yards downfield but he would be an able replacement for our missing El. How about an offensive lineman? The Steelers love those. My best bet is that Devin Joseph, a guard/tackle combo, should be available. If so, he would be a great pick. The Steelers situation at guard is not the surest (Kendal Simmons, which player will show up and Alan Faneca will be needing a new contract soon) and they need a good reserve right tackle as well. Joseph fits the bill for both needs. Another name to keep in mind is center Nick Mangold from Ohio St. From what I’m hearing though is that he’ll either be nabbed by the Jets late in the round or slide past the Steelers into round 2. If the Steelers are lacking their best options then Mangold wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize and would still be a good value at the end of round 1. On defense, the Steelers would love to add an impact LB and a FS early in the draft. I doubt they would use a first rounder on a FS (not their style and they’ve added Ryan Clark in the off-season) but on a LB, you bet they would. The ideal name would be Bobby Carpenter from; you guessed it, Ohio St. (how did that team not go undefeated?). I don’t think he’ll be around though which would leave the best options as DeMeco Ryans from ‘Bama and D’Qwell Jackson from Maryland (boy, my spell check is going nuts). Without Carpenter, I think the Steelers will wait a round or two because the LB position is probably the deepest in the draft. So, if I had to guess at the most likely options for the pick at #32, it would probably go something like this:

1. Devin Joseph OL, Oklahoma. The Steelers love their O-line and they believe in drafting them high. It’s not as exciting but it will win Championships.
2. Sinorice Moss WR Miami. If Carpenter is gone (probably) as well as Joseph, Moss is a very nice addition to an offense that knows how to use it’s weapons.
3. Bobby Carpenter LB, Ohio St. Think Kevin Greene with better athletic skills. My guess is that he doesn’t get past the Giants.
4. LenDale White RB, USC. If he’s there, the Steelers will get their third gift in as many years. I’m not sure the NFL is that generous though.
5. Nick Mangold C, Ohio St. Just because the Steelers have two centers doesn’t mean they are set there long term.
6. The mystery slider. See: Tamba Hali DE Penn St., Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston Col., Chad Greenway LB Iowa, etc. I could go on but it would take a while.

There, I think I named about a dozen and I still may not have named the Steelers’ first pick.

• I get a kick out of the “expert” commentators out there already dismissing the Steelers’ chances at repeating. They keep pointing to all of the losses the Steelers have incurred such as Randle El, Kimo von Toasteroven and Chris Hope. I can’t believe they’re serious. The only player that will be missed will be Randle El and that is due in large part to his punt returning skills. Guess what, you can draft good punt returners. As for his abilities to handle gadget plays, Hines Ward used to be a QB too. As for the other two, Kimo was already destined to be a backup behind Brett Keisel and Chris Hope was more than replaced with the signing of Ryan Clark. If only Hope’s skills were half as good as he thought they were, then maybe the Steelers would have made a serious attempt at keeping him around. All in all, I think the Steelers had an outstanding off-season. They managed to keep the most important people (Keisel, Townsend, Quincy Morgan, Charlie Batch) without spending a fortune to do it.
• While the “experts” are out there ripping the Steelers’ chances, they keep talking up the same old teams for a run this year. The Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Bengals and Chargers all seem to be getting the most positive press. Here’s my quick take, for what it’s worth. The Colts lost a key cog in their offense and haven’t added anyone (yet) to replace him. Edgerrin James was the Colts’ running game and the threat of that opened up downfield passing lanes for Peyton Manning. Without James, opposing safeties will be able to sit back and force Manning to throw around them-a big difference. Granted, they did sign a great kicker in Adam Vinitieri but it may not mean much if they can’t put together enough drives to make him matter. Speaking of Vinitieri, his old team the Patriots were stupid to let him go. He has pulled their butts out of the fire on too many important occasions to be let go because he wanted a little extra money. Some players are worth the money and he definitely is. Not only did the Pats lose Vinitieri but Richard Seymour and versatile O-lineman Tom Ashworth as well. Three big losses right there. Who have they added? How about former KC DB Eric Warfield. Not exactly a big step up. While the experts are expecting big things from the Pats I’m looking at a team in a rebuilding mode that will have a very tough time making the playoffs. I think the Dolphins have passed them by. As far as the others go, the Broncos still employ Jake Plummer, the Bengals still don’t have a defense and the Chargers will be starting a QB with pretty much zero experience. Yeah, the Steelers are the team with all the questions. Right.
• Why is everybody so concerned whether or not Brett Favre returns next season? Didn’t anyone bother watching him last year? He was terrible. In fact, he’s been in serious decline for many years. How many picks did he throw in his last playoff game? If memory serves, he threw five. Again, why is everyone so desperate to have this guy come back? If I were running the Packers I would have already lined up my team to play without him and I would walk and talk like he wasn’t coming back. If he did want to come back, it would be on my terms. Football is a business and it is a business of winning. Brett Favre has been running a failing business for a while now, time to close.
• I want to point something out there for all the people in a big hurry to dismiss Vince Young’s Wonderlic test score. Don’t be, it’s a good indicator for QBs. In the last couple of decades (don’t go back to Marino, it wasn’t taken seriously back then), the better QBs have always been at least in the 20s on the test. Young has taken it twice and was very upset that word leaked that he had gotten a 6 on his first one. I can see why he would be upset, he in fact scored a 7. Wow Vince, that’s a big step up! A score like that puts him on the level of borderline moron. His second score was either a 16 or 17 again, not what you want in a guy who is supposed to lead your team the next ten years+. Some team will take a shot at him due in large part to his athletic ability. That team will then spend the next half of a decade trying to figure out how to make him into an NFL QB. On the bright side, they will probably be drafting real high throughout that time period.
• Then there’s Vandy’s Jay Cutler. Can you say Kyle Boller?
• Media misconception: the draft board is moving quite a bit this year. Wrong. Most teams already have their draft boards pretty well set at this point. The perception that players are dropping or rising is based on information and disinformation that team sources are releasing. Don’t believe too much of it. A good example is Manny Lawson, a DE/OLB prospect from NC St. I have seen him go from being in the top 10 to dropping down the draft board all the way into the third round and now he’s “rising” once again. The truth is, Manny has maintained his positions on all teams draft boards pretty consistently. It’s just that some teams have him rated very highly (he’s a freak athlete who can get after a QB) and some others have him much lower (his college production should have been better and he’s unable to turn his hips in pass coverage). The big thing for Manny though is only one team has to love you if they draft you. There are teams that like him enough and my guess is that he will still end up in either the lower first round or early second. Good luck Manny!

I’m going to cut it off here so I can get back to gathering more info. I’ll be posting more but maybe smaller notes up until draft day so stay tuned, I’m already getting some good stuff that I haven’t listed yet. Just want to check it out a bit. So, until then…

Nuf fer now

Tim “Happy Easter” Campion